Ngo-2024, ngaphansi kwethonya elikabili lephethini yezomnotho womhlaba kanye nokuqondiswa kwenqubomgomo yasekhaya, imboni ye-aluminium yase-China ibonise isimo sokusebenza esiyinkimbinkimbi nesishintshayo. Sekukonke, usayizi wemakethe uyaqhubeka nokukhula, futhi ukukhiqizwa nokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium kuye kwagcina ukukhula, kodwa izinga lokukhula liye laguquguquka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, eqhutshwa isidingo esinamandla sezimoto ezintsha zamandla, i-photovoltaic, amandla kagesi nezinye izinkambu, uhla lwesicelo se-aluminium luyaqhubeka nokwanda, lufaka umfutho omusha ekuthuthukiseni imboni; Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwehla kwemakethe yezindlu ezithengiswayo kuye kwafaka ingcindezi ekudingeni i-aluminium emkhakheni wokwakha. Ukuzivumelanisa nezimo kwemboni ye-aluminium ekushintsheni kwemakethe, amasu okusabela ekuguquguqukeni okungavamile kwamanani entengo yezinto ezingavuthiwe, nezinhlelo zokufaka ngaphakathi izidingo eziqinile zokuthuthukiswa kwekhabhoni eluhlaza nephansi kusacutshungulwa futhi kancane kancane kuyaqiniswa. Ukuvela komkhiqizo omusha wekhwalithi yemboni akukafinyeleli izidingo zokuthuthukiswa kwemboni, futhi imboni ye-aluminium ibhekene nezinselele eziningi.
1.ukuhlaziywa kwemakethe ye-aluminium industry
I-Alumina
NgoJuni 2024, umphumela wawungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.193, ukukhuphuka ngo-1.4% unyaka nonyaka, futhi ukunyuka kwenyanga nenyanga bekunomkhawulo. Ezingxenyeni ezilandelayo zokuqaliswa kabusha kwamandla okukhiqiza akhishiwe, ukukhiqizwa okusha e-Inner Mongolia kungakhululwa kancane kancane, futhi umthamo wokusebenza uye wagcina umkhuba okhulayo.
Ngo-2024, intengo ye-alumina ishintshashintsha kakhulu, ikhombisa izici ezisobala ezifakwe ngezigaba. Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, intengo iyonke ibonise ukuthambekela kokukhuphuka, okwathi kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi, intengo yendawo ye-alumina yenyuka isuka cishe ku-3,000 yuan/ton ekuqaleni konyaka yaya ngaphezu kuka-4,000 yuan/ton, okuwukukhuphuka okungaphezu kuka-30%. Isizathu esiyinhloko sokwenyuka kwentengo kulesi sigaba ukutholakala okuqinile kwe-bauxite yasekhaya, okuholela ezindlekweni zokukhiqiza ze-alumina eziphakeme.
Ukwenyuka okubukhali kwezintengo ze-alumina kufake ingcindezi enkulu ezindlekweni zamabhizinisi e-electrolytic aluminium. Ukuze ukhiqize ithani elingu-1 le-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic idinga ukusebenzisa amathani angu-1.925 wokubala kwe-alumina, intengo ye-alumina ikhuphuka ngo-1000 yuan/ton, izindleko zokukhiqiza i-aluminium ye-electrolytic zizokhuphuka cishe ngo-1925 yuan/ton. Ukusabela ekucindezelweni kwezindleko, amanye amabhizinisi e-aluminium e-electrolytic aqala ukwehlisa ukukhiqizwa noma anciphisa ukuqalisa kabusha kohlelo lokukhiqiza, njengesifundazwe saseHenan, i-Guangxi, iGuizhou, iLiaoning, iChongqing nezinye izindawo ezibiza kakhulu zamanye amabhizinisi e-China amemezele ukulungiswa kabusha, ukumisa amathangi noma ukwehlisa ijubane ukuqala kabusha kokukhiqiza.
Electrolytic aluminium
Ngo-2022, umthamo wokukhiqiza wawungamathani ayizigidi ezingama-43, osondele kulayini obomvu ophahleni. Kusukela ngoDisemba 2024, amandla okusebenza embonini ye-aluminium e-electrolytic yaseShayina ayengamathani angu-43,584,000, ukwanda kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.506, noma u-3.58%, uma kuqhathaniswa namathani angu-42,078,000 ekupheleni kuka-2023. Ukuqaliswa kwale nqubomgomo kubaluleke kakhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwesikhathi eside kwemboni ye-electrolytic aluminium. Isiza ukulawula ukugcwala ngokweqile embonini, ukugwema ukuncintisana okunonya, futhi ikhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ngendlela yekhwalithi ephezulu, eluhlaza kanye nesimeme. Ngokuqeda amandla okukhiqiza ahlehlayo kanye nokwenza ngcono ukusebenza kahle kwamandla, amabhizinisi akhuthazwa ukuba andise ukuqanjwa kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali ekongeni amandla kanye nokunciphisa ukungcola, futhi athuthukise ukuncintisana okuphelele kwemboni.
Aluminium processing
Ngokuthuthuka kwezidingo ezingasindi ezimbonini ezahlukahlukene, isidingo semikhiqizo esetshenziselwe i-aluminium siyaqhubeka nokwanda, futhi imikhiqizo ithuthuka ibheke ekuvikelweni okuphezulu, okuhlakaniphile kanye nemvelo. Emkhakheni wokwakha, naphezu kokwehla okuphelele kwemakethe yezindlu, iminyango ye-aluminium kanye neWindows, izindonga zamakhethini neminye imikhiqizo isenesidingo esizinzile ezakhiweni ezintsha zezentengiselwano, izakhiwo zokuhlala ezisezingeni eliphezulu kanye namaphrojekthi amadala okuvuselela izakhiwo. Ngokwezibalo, inani le-aluminium elisetshenziswa embonini yezokwakha libalelwa ku-28% wengqikithi yokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium. Emkhakheni wezokuthutha, ikakhulukazi ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla, isidingo sezinto zokucubungula i-aluminium sibonise umfutho oqinile wokukhula. Ngokusheshisa inqubo ye-automobile lightweight, i-aluminium alloy isetshenziswa kabanzi ekwakhiweni komzimba, ihabhu lamasondo, ithreyi yebhethri nezinye izinto. Uma sithatha njengesibonelo imoto entsha esebenza ngamandla, inani le-aluminium esetshenziswa emzimbeni wayo lidlula ama-400 kg/imoto, elikhule kakhulu uma liqhathaniswa nezimoto ezisetshenziswa uphethiloli ezijwayelekile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isidingo samakhondaktha e-aluminium, ama-radiator e-aluminium neminye imikhiqizo embonini yamandla nawo akhuphuka kancane ngokwakhiwa nokuthuthukiswa kwegridi yamandla.
I-aluminium egaywe kabusha
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ukukhiqizwa kuye kwaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, u-2024 uwunyaka oyingqopha-mlando we-aluminium yaseChina egaywe kabusha ukwenza intuthuko enkulu, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium okugaywe kabusha kwaminyaka yonke kwephule uphawu lwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-10, kwafinyelela cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-10.55, futhi isilinganiso se-aluminium egaywe kabusha kuya ku-aluminium yokuqala sesicishe sibe ngu-1:4. Nokho, ukugaywa kabusha kwe-aluminiyamu ewudoti, umthombo wokuthuthukiswa kwe-aluminiyamu egaywe kabusha, akulona ithemba.
Ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-aluminium egaywe kabusha kuncike kakhulu ekuhlinzekweni kwezinto ezingavuthiwe ze-aluminium, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kabusha kwe-aluminium e-China kubhekene nesimo esinzima. Uhlelo lokugaywa kabusha kwemfucuza ye-aluminium yasekhaya aluphelele, nakuba izinga laseShayina elidala lokubuyiswa kwemfucuza ye-aluminium kwezinye izindawo ezingeni elihamba phambili emhlabeni, njengamakani e-aluminium imfucuza yokuvuselela kabusha ingafinyelela ku-100%, ukwakhiwa kabusha kwe-aluminium imfucumfucu ingafinyelela ku-90%, inkambu yokuthutha izimoto i-87%, kodwa izinga lokubuyisela kabusha, izinga lokubuyisela kabusha lisadingeka ngokuyinhloko ngoba iziteshi zokuvuselela kabusha zisadingeka zenziwe kabusha. okungajwayelekile, inqwaba yezinsiza ze-aluminiyamu ezilahlwayo azizange zisetshenziswe kabusha ngempumelelo.
Ukulungiswa kwenqubomgomo yokungenisa ezweni nakho kube nomthelela omkhulu ekuhlinzekweni kwezinto zokusetshenziswa ze-aluminiyamu ezigaywe kabusha. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, i-China isebenzise izindlela eziqinile zokulawula ukuthengwa kwe-aluminiyamu eyizicucu ukuze kuqiniswe ukuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nokuphathwa kwezinsiza. Lokhu kuholele ekuguquguqukeni okukhulu ekuthengisweni kwezinto ezisetshenziswa kabusha ze-aluminium alloy alloy, ngo-Okthoba 2024, ukungeniswa kwe-aluminium ezilahliwe zaseChina okungamathani ayi-133,000, okukhuphuke ngo-0.81%, kwehle ngo-13.59% unyaka nonyaka, ukwehla kwezinga lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kukhombisa ukuntengantenga kokuhlinzekwa.
2.I-Aluminium industry chain umbono wemakethe
I-aluminium oxide
Ngo-2025, kuzoba namandla amasha okukhiqiza, okuzokhuphuka cishe ngo-13%, okuhambisana nethuba lokuthi izimayini ezivela kwamanye amazwe zingathatha indawo ngokuphelele yezimayini zasekhaya zaseShayina, futhi ukulungiswa kwenqubomgomo yesaphulelo sentela ye-aluminium yokuthumela ngaphandle kuzocindezela ukwanda kwesidingo, futhi intengo izokwehla ngokukhulu ukungenzeka. Ukunikezwa okukhulayo: Umthamo wokukhiqiza we-alumina omusha waseShayina ngo-2025 Kwangathi ufinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-13.2, futhi umthamo wokukhiqiza phesheya kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-5.1 ngo-2025. Ukwehla kwentengo: ukuhlinzekwa kwe-bauxite ne-alumina kwanda, ukungqubuzana phakathi kokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa kwancipha kakhulu, futhi intengo kancane kancane yehla.
Electrolytic aluminium
Amandla okukhiqiza ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka afinyelele ophahleni, amathuba okwandisa umkhiqizo aphansi kakhulu, ukukhiqizwa phesheya kwezilwandle kuthinteka yizinto ezihlukahlukene, futhi ukukhiqizwa akukwazi ukwenziwa ngempumelelo. Ohlangothini lwesidingo, ngaphezu kokwehla konyaka nonyaka kwesidingo sezindlu, ezinye izidingo zokugcina zibonise ukusebenza okugqamile, ikakhulukazi emkhakheni wamandla amasha okukhula kwesidingo samandla, kanye nokuhlinzekwa komhlaba wonke kanye nesidingo sagcina ibhalansi eqinile; Umthamo wokukhiqiza wasekhaya useduze nomugqa obomvu, amathani angu-450,000 omthamo omusha wokukhiqiza wasekhaya angatshalwa ngo-2025, futhi phesheya kwezilwandle kulindeleke ukuthi kwengeze amathani angu-820,000 womthamo omusha wokukhiqiza ngaphansi kwesimo sokuma, ukukhuphuka ngo-2.3% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2024. isidingo esisha esibuswa i-photovoltaic kanye nezimoto zamandla amasha kulindeleke ukuthi sibe ngaphansi kwamathani angu-260,000 we-electrolytic aluminium supply yasekhaya ngo-2025. Ukukhuphuka kwentengo: Izintengo ze-aluminium zaseShanghai kulindeleke ukuthi ziguquguquke phakathi kuka-19000-20500 yuan/ton engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, futhi intengo ilindeleke engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi intengo ilindeleke engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. 20,000-21,000 yuan/ton.
Aluminium processing
Ngokuthuthuka okusheshayo kwezimoto zamandla amasha, imboni ye-photovoltaic kanye nokuthandwa kobuchwepheshe be-5G, isidingo semikhiqizo ecutshungulwayo ye-aluminium sizoqhubeka nokukhula futhi kulindeleke ukuthi sigcine umkhuba wokukhula ozinzile. Ukunwetshwa kosayizi wemakethe: Usayizi wemakethe kulindeleke ukuthi ufinyelele ku-1 trillion yuan, futhi isidingo sezimoto zamandla amasha, i-photovoltaic, i-3C ne-smart home siqinile. Ukuthuthukiswa komkhiqizo: Umkhiqizo uqhubekela ekusebenzeni okuphezulu, okungasindi kanye nokusebenza okuningi, kanye nokucwaninga nokuthuthukiswa kwezinto ezisezingeni eliphezulu kanye nengxubevange ye-aluminium yokusebenza okukhethekile. Inqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe: okuhlakaniphile, okuzenzakalelayo kokujwayelekile, okokusebenza kokutshalwa kwezimali kwebhizinisi, ukulawula ukukhiqiza, ukuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kanye nekhwalithi, ukubambisana kocwaningo lwemboni-inyuvesi ukukhuthaza inqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe.
I-aluminium egaywe kabusha
Ukungena esikhathini sokukhula, izimoto ezilahliwe/ezihlakaziwe zingena esikhathini sobuningi, esingagcwalisa isimo sokunganele kwe-aluminium yasekhaya egaywe kabusha, futhi imakethe inamathemba abanzi, kepha njengamanje ibhekene nezinkinga ezifana nenani elinganele lezinto ezilahliwe ezingenisiwe, imakethe eqinile yokulinda nokubona imizwa, kanye nempahla enganele. Ukukhula kokukhiqiza: Ngokusho kwegatsha le-Recycled Metal le-China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association, kuzofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-11.35 ngo-2025. Ukunwetshwa kwensimu yohlelo lokusebenza: Emkhakheni wezimoto ezintsha zamandla, ukwakhiwa, ugesi kanye nezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza kuzoqhubeka nokukhula, njengezimoto zamandla amasha ekuphishekeleni ukuthuthukiswa kwamakhilomitha, inani elikhulu lesisindo se-aluminium recycled recycled. Ukwandisa ukugxilisa ingqondo embonini: Ngaphansi kokunwetshwa okuphindwe kabili kwamandla okukhiqiza amafekthri amakhulu nezinkambiso zezimboni, amanye amabhizinisi amancane azoqedwa yimakethe, futhi amabhizinisi anenzuzo azokwazi ukuba nemiphumela emikhulu, ehlise izindleko, futhi aqinise ukuncintisana kwemakethe.
3.Ukuhlaziywa kwamasu
I-Alumina: Ibhizinisi lokukhiqiza lingakhuphula i-inventory ngendlela efanele uma intengo iphezulu, ilinde intengo yehle bese kancane kancane ithumela; Abahwebi bangase bacabangele ukuthatha izikhundla ezimfushane ngaphambi kokuba amanani ehle emakethe yekusasa futhi bavale inzuzo.
Electrolytic aluminium: Amabhizinisi okukhiqiza anganaka ukukhula kwesidingo ezindaweni ezisafufusa njengamandla amasha, alungise ukwakheka komkhiqizo, futhi andise ukukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo ehlobene; Abatshalizimali bangathenga izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo lapho amanani entengo ephansi futhi bazithengise lapho amanani entengo ephezulu ngokuya ngesimo somnotho omkhulu kanye nezinguquko zokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo.
Aluminium processing: amabhizinisi kufanele aqinise ukuqanjwa kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nocwaningo nokuthuthukiswa kwemikhiqizo, athuthukise inani elengeziwe lomkhiqizo kanye nokuncintisana kwemakethe; Khulisa izimakethe ezisafufusa, njengezimoto ezintsha zamandla, i-aerospace, ulwazi lwe-elekthronikhi neminye imikhakha; Qinisa ukubambisana namabhizinisi akhuphukayo naphansi ukuze asungule uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngokuzinzile.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-03-2025
